Thursday, November 21, 2013

Is BJ Raji Worth $8 Million/yr?

BJ Raji has been offered an $8 Million/year, multi-year contract from the Packers, according to an article by Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. McGinn writes that the offer has been on the table for "several months," which puts the time frame close to the marquee signings of both Clay Matthews and Aaron Rodgers.

The news comes as a bit of a shock to those who thought the Packers were simply letting Raji show his meddle in the final year of his current contract.

Consider me part of this group.

In a league where the franchise tag price of a DT is around $8 Million/year, BJ Raji has failed to measure up to even average performers at the position. A 3-4 nose tackle playing mostly defensive end, Raji has not recorded a sack since November of 2011. Please re-read the previous sentence slowly.


There is an argument to be made that the defensive line in a 3-4 scheme is less sack-focused than say, the outside linebackers. But the big man has had success getting to the quarterback in previous seasons. He recorded 6.5 sacks in 2010, and 3 the following year. But in a "what have you done for me lately" league, Raji has 0 sacks and just 12 tackles this year while taking 85-90% of all defensive snaps.

The Competition

How does Raji stack up against other defensive tackles? While comparisons can be rendered somewhat moot by differences in scheme, Raji has been among the worst statistical performers this year at DT, according to a Rotoworld.com metric which aggregates tackles, sacks, interceptions, and fumbles. (pictured below)

Horizontal axis is each game this season. Vertical is rank. Courtesy of Rotoworld.com

With the above stats in mind, it's interesting to me that Raji's camp has refused the Packers contract offer multiple times. The team's offer is fair/high market value for a player who, lately, seems to be more of a local folk hero than a statistical contributor. The Packers still have the option to slap the franchise tag on Raji, effectively equaling their current offer but for just one season. If BJ Raji is hoping for a more favorable contract elsewhere, he may be playing his way to a disappointing offseason. 

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