Thursday, January 27, 2011

When In Dome: Rodgers V. Roethlisberger


5 NFL teams play in true domes. They are Atlanta, New Orleans, Saint Louis, Minnesota, and Detroit. Four more teams have retractable roofs in Houston, Arizona, Indianapolis, and Dallas. Let's regard them all as dome teams for the sake of this piece, because it's really the playing surface that matters. Turfs and synthetic composite fields represent ideal conditions for out-of-the-gate speed, and on-a-dime cuts, two things that make the Packers offense especially dangerous. And after all, quarterback Aaron Rodgers gets to wear his favorite shoes, or so he says. But how will Aaron Rodgers stack up against Pittsburgh's Ben Roethisberger on the turf down in Jerry's World, Texas? My brother Chris gets the credit for this topic. He wondered how each QB fared in Domed stadiums period. I found the topic interesting enough to do a little research, and crunch a few numbers. One thing that was evident right away, is that the NFC has far more domes, and thus Aaron Rodgers has a much higher volume of dome games. But, coincidentally, In Roethlisberger's 7 years as a starter compared to 3 years for Rodgers, both QB's have started exactly 12 dome games including the postseason. One notable nugget is that 2 of Big Ben's 12 dome games have been Super Bowls victories.


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The first thing that I noticed after doing the math, was that Roethlisberger's average QB rating is higher, despite being inferior to Rodgers in all relevant statistical categories. Big Ben owes this to the fact that he scored a perfect 158.3 QB rating in one of his 12 games, and also posted ratings of 147.4 and 139.8. In general, Rodgers has been more efficient, picking up more valuable yardage, throwing touchdowns and not turning the ball over. This can be said not just in domes, but really in general when comparing the two QB's. But Roethlisberger is not a numbers guy anyway. Instead, he possesses that Favre-esque quality of refusing to go down, extending the play, and rifling the ball downfield for big gains. Unfortunately, this doesn't always make a pretty chart.

Given this information, I see the advantage going to Green Bay. With those speedy Packers receivers traversing that perfect turf, Aaron Rodgers will be the efficient scoring machine he has proven to be in dome situations. It will be paramount for Green Bays sub-happy defense to keep Roethlisberger confused, and neutralize the down-field threat. Shrinking the field will keep Big Ben under control.


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